But for the main importand beginn of the catastrophe, I still only can only weigh up or check possibilities.
I am sorry that people got confused about my turnaround in the question of the use of MANPADS, but it seems now to me, that Iran attacked like it was said, with 2 Tor M1 missiles.
And that the intelligence attack was behind the fact, that the civil air surveillance got a transponder signal and the military did not.
So what could have happend? Normally a plane is sending its transponder-signal UNDIRECTED, in all directions, so everyone is informed that this is a regular civilian flight. No air-defense would shot such a plane down.
Some people now speculated, that the signal could have been jammed from outside, to prevent the military base from being informed about the harmless plane.
This is one possibility, that the signal left the plane correctly and then something disturbed it.
But there are only 30 km between the military base and the airport, how precise would such a jammer work to prevent that the signal reaches the military but allows that the signal reaches the civil air surveillance? And could this be done so easy in a foreign country ?
The other possibillity is that terrorist had succes to the electronic and software oft the Boing itself and there was no UNDIRECTED signals on this flight, but the planes Computersystem was hacked und switched to a military mode where signals are not send put UNDIRECTED.
I am not a technical specialist but I propose experts to think about the possibility, that the plane was hacked and on this flight no signals where sent UNDIRECTED like in a civilian mode, but DIRECTED like in a military mode. So that in the end the signal that reached the civilian air surveillance did not come directly from the plane, but went through a special pass and even through satellites or AWACS etc. before it was focussed to the civilian air surveillance but hidden from the military, without the need of a jammer.
So here I am still searching, I have no fixed explanation, but:
The airplane flew 5,5 km in the time between the moment when the second missile hit above Parand and the moment when the first missle was started.
And before this there where about only 2,5 minutes after takeoff to decide what to do with the unindentified objekt.
So the plane was obviously detected by the millitary as a threat from the first moments on when it started, but first it was out of reach for the Tor M1, with their range of 12 km.
It seems that there where no normal UNDIRECTED transponder signals at all, so how did the transponder signals reach the civilian air surveillance?